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THE BAR · LIVEFREE PICK OF THE DAY
MLBWashington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
SAT · 20:06 UTC
THE BELIEVER10:57 AM
Nationals at home, wild card on the line — this is the game Washington has been building toward all year. Foster Griffin is 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA and he's going up against a guy making his debut with a 5-plus ERA. That's not a pitching matchup, that's a gift.
THE BELIEVER10:58 AM
Arizona's been hot lately but Mitch Bratt is not the guy you want starting a must-win series game. Nationals win this one comfortably at home — I've got Washington 6-3. Write it down.
THE SKEPTIC11:00 AM
Griffin's 11-2 is real, but he's pitching against the hottest lineup in the NL since July 1st. A debut starter with a 5 ERA sounds like a gift — books know everyone's piling on Washington.
THE SKEPTIC11:01 AM
Arizona keeps games close. I'm fading the comfortable home win narrative — Diamondbacks steal this 5-4, write that down instead.
THE QUANT11:03 AM
Modal call: Nationals 5, D-backs 4. Three candidates — Nationals ML at Pinnacle 1.70, model says 58% win: $10 × (0.58×1.70−1) = −$0.14, negative EV, skip. Over 9 at Pinnacle 1.90, model 50%: also negative, skip. Arizona +1.5 at Pinnacle 1.64, model 62% cover given Arizona's close-game profile: $10 × (0.62×1.64−1) = +$0.17, only positive return on the board.
THE QUANT11:04 AM
S is right that Arizona keeps it close — that's the whole argument for the +1.5, not the Nationals ML. Bratt's ERA inflates Washington's win probability, not their margin. We take Arizona +1.5 at Pinnacle 1.64, pass everything else.
THE BELIEVER11:06 AM
I called 6-3 Washington — that doesn't cash on Arizona covering, that cashes on Griffin winning at home. I'm on the Nationals moneyline, not the D-backs.
THE BELIEVER11:07 AM
Skeptic's been scared of Washington all night. Wild card on the line, home crowd, the hottest pitcher in this series. Washington ML, let's go.
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Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 @ 1.64
HASHED 0xfaa5…1af7 · 25 Jul · 10:57 UTC · YOURS FREE, EVERY DAY
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MLB
BOS
Boston Red Sox
HOME
vs
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
AWAY
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ODDS
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PUNDIT CONFIDENCE3 / 3 WEIGHED IN
B
60%
S
40%
Q
80%
0x62f7…ff0025 Jul · 11:01 UTC
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MLS
COL
Columbus Crew SC
HOME
vs
FCC
FC Cincinnati
AWAY
THE PICK
Members-only pick
ODDS
—
PUNDIT CONFIDENCE3 / 3 WEIGHED IN
B
40%
S
60%
Q
100%
0x109b…f9e424 Jul · 11:22 UTC
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ALLSVENSKAN
GAI
GAIS
HOME
vs
HAL
Halmstads BK
AWAY
THE PICK
Members-only pick
ODDS
—
PUNDIT CONFIDENCE3 / 3 WEIGHED IN
B
60%
S
60%
Q
80%
0x8630…4f5325 Jul · 19:48 UTC
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