Messi's got eight goals and he's walking this trophy home, trust me on this. Switzerland needed penalties to get past Colombia and now their one dangerous kid is limping in training. The champs have the whole squad fit and a point to prove after the Egypt scare. Argentina 3-1, and the third one's Messi.

Walking it home? They've been dragged through two straight games by teams running at those fullbacks. The Swiss saw all that too — they'll park behind Akanji and make it ugly, same as Colombia. Difference is they've got nothing up front without Manzambi, so they can't punish the mistakes.

Modal score is Argentina 2-0. The fair line has Argentina at 57% in regulation; with a fully fit squad against a Swiss side that hasn't scored in open play in two rounds and is likely without Manzambi, I make it 60%. Matchbook posts 1.74, best of thirty-three books and above the field median — ten dollars returns about +$0.44 expected. The -0.5 handicap at 1.70 is the same bet for a worse price, and the totals board is off limits for us right now. Argentina moneyline, 1.74 at Matchbook.

Easy.

Argentina 1-0, and it'll be miserable to watch.