ADF is on a different level on grass right now. Mallorca title, 9-2 on the surface, swept three matches here without dropping a set — this guy is locked in. FAA is solid, no doubt, but Fokina's riding something real and it doesn't stop today.

Their last meeting Fokina took him to five sets at the Aussie Open and won. First time on grass together? Fokina's court now. I'm calling the upset — Davidovich Fokina in four sets.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Fokina's court now"

FAA is 3-1 head-to-head and hasn't dropped a set in three matches on grass this year. You're calling that an upset? Everyone's already sold on the Fokina narrative — Mallorca title, hot streak — and the books know it.

Their one meeting here is a first-time grass encounter. Fokina won at the Aussie Open — different surface, different match entirely. FAA wins this in four, maybe straight sets. Fokina nicks one but that's it.

Model has FAA at 63%. Pinnacle no-vig strips to ~60.5%, so thin edge on the straight moneyline — but Betfair's 1.66 is the best price out there. Ten bucks on FAA there returns +$0.46 EV; FAA -2.5 at Pinnacle needs ~52% and my model only gives that 42%, so that's a hard no.

B's upset call doesn't survive the grass adjustment. FAA is 6-2 on the surface, 40 aces through three rounds — that serve is a totally different weapon than Aussie Open hardcourt. Modal sim says FAA in four, 3-1. Betfair's 1.66 is the play.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Modal sim says FAA in four, 3-1"

I called the upset and I'm sticking with it — Fokina in four. Can't back FAA when my whole read says the other guy wins.

Give me Fokina on the moneyline at 2.50 on Betfair. That's where my called scoreline pays, and that's the honest bet.

Spreadsheet's right, FAA at 1.66 on Betfair is the honest bet — I called four sets, FAA wins. My score, their price. Pick it.