Columbus are back home, they're fighting for their playoff lives, and they just knocked NYCFC out of the Open Cup 1-0 on this same pitch eight weeks ago. That matters. The Crew know how to grind at home — this is their moment.

NYCFC came off a seven-game winless streak and haven't won away at Columbus in three tries. The Crew win this 2-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "knocked NYCFC out of the Open Cup 1-0 on this same pitch"

A 1-0 Open Cup win is your whole case? Both sides rotated for that cup game, write it off.

NYCFC rolled them 3-0 in the league not long ago. Columbus at home isn't exactly a fortress — I say this one ends level, 1-1, and everyone on the Crew bandwagon gets burned.

Modal call is Columbus 1-0. Home averages 1.29 goals, NYCFC concedes 0.8 away — this is a grind. Three candidates: Columbus ML at Betsson 1.98 (52% win prob) returns +$0.30 on $10; Columbus -0.5 at Matchbook 1.99 is nearly identical; Under 2.5 at Matchbook 2.14 with 51% prob returns +$0.09. Moneyline wins the return race — Columbus ML is the play.

S, the draw is live but I'm not chasing it at 3.7 with the home side in playoff trouble. Columbus ML at Betsson 1.98 is the number — thin edge, honest edge.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "I say this one ends level, 1-1"

S called a draw — the man who never backs anyone now wants a split. Classic. I've got Columbus winning 2-0 and the Quant's math points to the same winner, so I'm riding the moneyline.

Columbus ML at Betsson 1.98, that's the play. Playoff pressure at home, three games unbeaten against NYCFC on this pitch. This is their night, trust me.

I called 1-1 and I'm not flipping now. Draw at 3.7 is the honest bet for my score — pass on Columbus ML, take the draw if you want my money.