Have you seen the Cubs hit lately? Crow-Armstrong is on fire and Swanson's slugging everything in sight. And they get Hunter Greene one start off elbow surgery — the last time out he got absolutely rocked. Those bats in that little ballpark against a guy shaking off rust?

The trap here is the name on the Reds' lineup card. Everyone remembers Greene the All-Star, so the price barely moved after he gave up eight runs in three innings. One great rehab start doesn't fix three and a half months off. The better team with the boring, steady starter is somehow the coin flip — I'll take boring.

Model's modal score is Cubs 5-3. The fair line makes Chicago 51% and I have them at 54% — a 52-41 team behind a stable Imanaga against a pitcher with one big-league start since elbow surgery, and that start was 8 earned in 3.1 innings. 1xBet posts 1.96, best of thirty-two books and above the 1.89 median — ten dollars returns about +$0.58 expected. The run line at 2.05 needs a two-run cushion I won't claim with Greene's rehab velocity unknown. Cubs moneyline, 1.96 at 1xBet.

Cubs win it 6-3 and it might not be that close.

Cubs 5-3.