Detroit is on a heater right now — six of their last seven, best winning percentage in the AL since June. And tonight they're throwing Troy Melton, who's been absolutely untouchable. Two hits or fewer in three straight starts. This guy is a problem.

The A's are sending out Springs with a 5.79 ERA and seventeen home runs allowed in his last nine games. Detroit wins this going away. Give me Tigers 7-2, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Tigers 7-2, write it down."

7-2? Everyone's already printing the Tigers' ticket. That's the trap.

Springs is bad, but Detroit doesn't crush lefties. The line's already fat, and the A's cover as dogs nearly half the time. Tigers win, but it's 5-3, not a blowout.

Model lands on Tigers 5-2. Melton's sub-1 ERA over three starts is real; Springs has surrendered 17 HRs in nine outings. B's 7-2 is too fat, S's 5-3 is close — I just shade Oakland's run total lower.

Three candidates at $10: Tigers ML Pinnacle 1.76 — model 61%, no-vig ~57%, best return in the room. Under 9 at 2.05 — tempting, but Springs's HR rate keeps the ceiling live and I won't trust it. Tigers -1.5 at 2.41 — not enough probability. Moneyline wins. Tigers ML, Pinnacle.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "it's 5-3, not a blowout"

Tell that to Springs when Detroit's lineup gets to him the third time through. Melton holds them to two, the bats do the rest — this is a rout, not a nail-biter.

Q's got it right, moneyline is the play. Tigers are the hottest team in the AL and I've got them winning by five. I'm on it, easy.

Moneyline's fine. Tigers win, Melton keeps it manageable, and the A's are too banged up to steal this. First time I'm not fighting the Quant — take the Tigers ML and go home.