Göteborg have won two league games all season, they're 14th, and they just got taken apart 4-0 at Malmö. Little BP from Stockholm are six points ABOVE them with a real away record, and they're healthy. And here's the kicker — this game got moved to Friday so Göteborg can play their European qualifier on Tuesday, the only thing left in their season worth caring about. You know where their heads are.

Slow down. That qualifier is at home against a team from Estonia — nobody's resting starters for that. And a 4-0 humiliation usually buys one angry response, especially with Bager back in the middle. But I'm not backing a two-win team either. A big club playing scared in front of its own crowd against a tidy little side — that's a nervous, blocked-up game. Nobody wins it. Their money-back bet just hands the book a free loan on my scoreline.

The table gap is the whole case: Brommapojkarna sit six points and twelve goals of difference above Göteborg, who own two wins and a minus-fourteen at the break of round 13. BP are 3-2-2 away; Göteborg just lost 4-0 with a long injury list — Jallow, Mucolli and Alioum all out. The thesis is really that Göteborg don't win this, so the bet should pay on exactly that: BP draw-no-bet at 2.92 with Pinnacle — stake refunded on S's draw, and it only loses if a two-win team wins. Strip the vig on Pinnacle's two-way and the line implies 32.7 percent; the model says 36. A $10 ticket returns $10.98 expected. The play is Brommapojkarna +0 at 2.92, my score 2-1 to the visitors.

I'll take BP with the safety net — if it's a draw we get our money back, and I still say they win it 2-0.

1-1, give me the draw.