Bryce Miller has been unhittable all summer and Miami's answer is a guy who hasn't thrown a big-league pitch since May. I don't care that Julio's sitting one more day out, this lineup grinds out enough against a rusty arm and a taped-together bullpen.

Careful. Miami have the better record and they're at home, so this is no gimme. But I keep coming back to who's actually pitching. A guy off six weeks on the shelf, on a pitch count, in front of a bullpen missing five arms. That's the whole game right there.

Model has the away side at 61% with Miller at a 1.71 ERA against a returning starter who peaked at 61 rehab pitches. Betfair posts Seattle at 1.73, the best price on a board whose median sits 1.67. Ten dollars returns +$0.55 expected on the moneyline; the -1.5 run line pays more per win but too much of Miller's value lands in one-run games, so the expected return is thinner. Seattle moneyline, 1.73 at Betfair.

Give me the Mariners, they take this one going away 5-2.

Seattle without their star bat still wins it 4-2, ugly.