Everyone sees Twins and just assumes, but look at who's actually walking out there. Buxton and his 25 homers are on the shelf, half their bullpen is in the trainer's room, and the Angels are running out their best arm. Soriano has been dealing all summer and nobody outside Anaheim noticed. Getting better than two-to-one on the better pitcher?

I hate agreeing with him. But this Twins price is the logo, not the roster. Bradley had one loud start and the market swooned. One start, in July. Their relievers are hurt or gassed, and it's getaway day. Nobody wants to back the Angels, so the price is wrong.

Strip the vig at the field median and the Angels are about a 45 percent team here, yet GTbets still posts 2.25 with the Twins at 1.74. Soriano at 3.40 against Bradley at 3.67 is a wash-or-better for LA, and Minnesota is missing its best bat plus four bullpen arms — my model nudges the Angels to 46 percent. Ten dollars at 2.25 returns about +$0.35 expected; the run line at 1.59 prices the same info worse and the total at 8.5 is fair. The play is the Angels moneyline at 2.25, and I'll call it 4-3 Angels in a close one.

Angels take this one 5-3 and fly into the break happy.

Angels 4-2.