Muchova hasn't dropped a set in the whole tournament and she just took Osaka apart like it was a practice session. That slice-and-net game on grass is art, and she's finally healthy. First Wimbledon semi, whole career waiting for this — she's not showing up tight, she's showing up free. Gauff needed a curfew miracle against Bencic and three sets against Pegula; she's running on fumes. Muchova wins it 2-1 and the place falls in love with her.

B, you fell for the highlight reel. Everyone did. That's why the price got short. Gauff has beaten her six times out of seven. Six. That's not luck, that's a matchup. Coco runs down all that fancy variety. Makes her hit one extra ball, every point. Two clean weeks don't erase seven matches of getting solved. Gauff in three, 1-2.

Modal call is Gauff in three, 1-2. The market has priced Muchova's fortnight and forgotten the matchup: a 6-1 head-to-head between top players carries real signal, and my model makes Gauff 52.5% here. Betfair posts her at 2.04 with Muchova 1.94 — that's about +3.8 points over the no-vig line. Ten dollars on Gauff at 2.04 returns +$0.71 expected; Muchova ML is the mirror-image negative, and the 21.5 games total is flat — no view. S has it right: the play is Gauff moneyline at 2.04.

Trust me on this.

The public pays for the romance.