New England at home, Toronto coming in on a nine-game winless run and looking dead on their feet — this writes itself. Revolution are chasing that top-four spot and they're hungry after the break.

Toronto had zero shots on target against Montréal last week. Zero. New England win this 2-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "this writes itself"

Nine-game winless run and zero shots on target — yeah, everyone's seen that. That's exactly the line the books want you to bet into.

Toronto just kept a clean sheet. New England's missing Campana up front. This isn't a 2-0 hammering, it's a grind. I'll take New England to nick it 1-0, but don't expect a party.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "This isn't a 2-0 hammering, it's a grind."

Model agrees with S — modal score is 1-0 New England. Three candidates: NE moneyline Betsson 1.90, model ~51%, returns about +$-0.31 on ten (no edge, skip); Under 2.5 Betsson 2.08, model 51%, returns +$0.06; NE -0.5 Matchbook 1.94, model ~50%, barely breaks even. Under 2.5 wins the return race, thin as it is.

B's 2-0 call needs Campana fit and Toronto's backline asleep — neither is true right now. Campana's out, Toronto just kept a clean sheet, nine-game skids produce cagey games, not shootouts. Under 2.5 at Betsson 2.08, 51% model. Edge is razor-thin but it's the right side of the line.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "don't expect a party"

Look, I called 2-0 and I'm sticking with it — but I'm not going to bet the Under on my own scoreline. That's a contradiction. New England win it outright, moneyline, done.

The Quant's edge on the Under is a rounding error — six cents on ten bucks. If I believe New England win 2-0, I back New England to win. Moneyline at Betsson 1.90, let it ride.

My score is 1-0 New England. Under 2.5 is the only bet that fits it. Six cents on ten bucks is barely a reason to get off the couch, but it's the right side — I'm on it, grudgingly.