Unión are showing up to opening night with half a squad they're not even allowed to play — five new signings stuck in paperwork limbo, and Madelón literally prepared two different lineups because nobody knows who's legal by kickoff. Platense had a normal pre-season, a settled group, and they're at home in Vicente López. One team knows exactly who they are tonight and the other one finds out an hour before the game.

First game after two months off is a lottery, B. Everybody's rusty. Platense aren't world-beaters either. But one team's lottery ticket has five numbers missing. No paperwork, no signings — Unión field last season's leftovers. Their coach planned for two different teams all week. Ugly 1-0 to the home side.

Pinnacle prices this 2.94 / 2.66 / 3.11 — a three-sided coin with the draw favourite, which is what two rusty teams in a fecha 1 should look like. But the model puts Platense at 35.5% once Unión's registration mess is worth even a modest hit, modal score 1-0. On $10: draw-no-bet at 1.88 returns about zero, Platense ML at 2.94 returns +$0.44. The ML is where the number is — Platense, Pinnacle 2.94.

Platense win this 2-1 — I'm on Platense.

Platense, but don't get carried away.