Phillies at home, Nola on the mound, and Schwarber with 33 bombs already this season — this is their night. Citizens Bank Park is going to be loud and the Dodgers have lost six of their last ten. That's not a juggernaut, that's a team running on fumes.

Nola's ERA looks ugly but he's a different animal at home in front of that crowd. Philly wins this one 5-3, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Nola's ERA looks ugly but he's a different animal at home"

Nola's ERA is 5.68. You can't just wave that away because the crowd's loud. That's not a narrative, that's a problem.

And Lauer is 7-0 in his starts for LA — everyone's ignoring that because the Dodgers look tired. Watch this be the trap. Dodgers win 4-3, Lauer keeps the streak alive.

Modal score: Dodgers 4-3. Lauer's 7-0 is real signal, and Nola's 5.68 ERA doesn't magically fix at home. Three candidates: LAD moneyline at Pinnacle 1.86 returns +$0.60 on $10 at 57% model; Phillies +1.5 at 1.65 returns +$0.38; Under 9.5 at 1.89 barely breaks even — forget the total.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Philly wins this one 5-3, write it down."

Dodgers ML is the play. B picked the wrong winner; S got the right team.

Look, I called Phillies 5-3 and I'm sticking with it — but I'm not putting money on the Dodgers to cash my own ticket against me. Phillies ML at 2.00 is where I'm going. Schwarber, home crowd, Nola locked in — this is their night and I want the payout when it lands.

S called the trap on Nola, Q called the wrong winner — trust me, Philly closes this one out.

I called Dodgers 4-3, Q called Dodgers 4-3. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Dodgers ML, done.