This is an ace against half a lineup. Julio is still in concussion protocol, Seattle got swept into the break by Miami, and Webb has been carrying a bad team on his back all season. Give him one night where the other side is missing its best hitter and I like the Giants to nick it 4-2.

Careful. The Giants have lost fourteen more games than they've won, and bad teams lose games their ace starts. That's how a record gets that ugly. Seattle's bullpen is still better and Woo at home is fine. No Julio hurts but one bat isn't two runs of price. I've got Seattle grinding it out 3-2 late.

The market has Seattle at 58 percent and the model says 53 at best with Rodriguez off the board. Webb against Woo is a clear grade up for the road side, and the lineup adjustment is worth roughly four points of win probability on its own. Most likely score 4-3 Giants in a close one. On $10 the moneyline at 2.24 Pinnacle is the only market where the price is wrong, the +1.5 run line pays too little to bother. Giants moneyline, small but real.

At better than 2 to 1 I'm not overthinking it.

You two are buying a story.