Everyone's suddenly in love with Belgium because they battered a poor American side, but look who they're walking into. Spain haven't blinked all tournament and Yamal is playing like the best player in the world right now. De Bruyne gets his moment, Belgium nick one, but Spain have too much class for a midfield that just lost its legs.

That demolition job is the trap. Belgium beat up one bad team and the public thinks the golden age is back. They lost Onana for the tournament. The new pivot spends all night chasing Pedri and Rodri. And Spain look blunt without their wide men, so no fireworks.

Model's modal score is Spain 2-0. Spain at 62% to win; Matchbook posts 1.69, best price on the board and above the field. Ten dollars on Spain returns +$0.48 expected; the -0.75 handicap at 1.87 returns about +$0.20 because a third of Spain's wins this tournament land by exactly one goal and half the stake pushes back. The moneyline is the cleaner hold — Spain, 1.69 at Matchbook.

Spain win this 2-1 — I'm on Spain, write it down.

Spain grind it out 1-0, same as always.