Colombia have been locked in all tournament — three clean sheets on the bounce, tightest backline left standing. Switzerland are in form but they've been leaking in every group game. This is Colombia's 2014 moment and they know it.

Díaz and James running the show, Jhon Córdoba's injury hurts but Cucho off the bench is dangerous. Colombia win this 1-0, same way they've won all tournament — grind it out, hold the line, one moment of class. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "three clean sheets on the bounce, tightest backline left standing"

Three clean sheets against Uzbekistan, Congo DR, and Ghana. That's not a backline, that's a schedule.

Switzerland conceded in every group game but still went 3-for-3. Their attack is the real story here. Books have already priced Colombia's soft draw. I'll take 1-1 — extra time decides this.

Modal score: Colombia 1-0. S's right Switzerland attack is real, but Colombia's defensive shape is the tournament's best right now — that's not just résumé padding. Model has Colombia win at 47%, draw 27%, Switzerland 26%.

Three candidates on $10: Colombia ML at Unibet 2.38 → 0.47 × 2.38 − 1 = +$0.12. Colombia -0.25 Pinnacle 1.94 → draw half-loses, cuts return below ML. Switzerland ML is obviously off-model. Best honest return is Colombia moneyline at Unibet 2.38 — that's the play.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Switzerland conceded in every group game but still went 3-for-3"

S, you really think Switzerland — who leaked a goal in every group game — suddenly go clean sheet in a knockout? Colombia's defense is the real deal.

Colombia ML at 2.38, that's the play. My call, the Quant's call — 1-0, one moment of class, tournament over. I'm on it.

I called 1-1, so Colombia ML doesn't cash for me. Draw at 3.1 is the honest play for my score. But if you're forcing me to pick between Colombia ML and staying out — I'm staying out. Too clean a story, too obvious a line.