Everyone sees Blue Jays at home and just assumes. But have you watched Bieber since he came back? Six homers in thirteen innings, he's getting hit hard every start. Davis Martin has been dealing all year and nobody outside Chicago knows his name.

For once I'm with the sunshine guy. The trap here is Toronto's record, not Chicago's. Bieber is a rehab start wearing a famous name. Scherzer just hit the IL too, that rotation is held together with tape. Sox 4-2.

Model has the White Sox at 54 percent, well clear of the coin flip the board shows. Current-form gap between starters is the whole input: Martin at 3.41 across a full season against Bieber at 9.00 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in three starts since the elbow layoff, 54 percent hard-hit. Most likely score 5-3 Chicago. On a $10 stake the moneyline at 1.96 Betfair returns best of the three markets, the -1.5 run line at 2.42 needs a two-run cushion the model only gives 30 percent. White Sox moneyline is the play.

I've got the White Sox winning this 5-3, the name on the Toronto jersey is doing all the work in that price.

The public backs the home team and the better pitcher wins.