Vitória come back from the break with a trophy — they won the Copa do Nordeste in June and the Barradão will be bouncing for the restart. And who walks in? A Vasco side in the relegation zone that hasn't won away all season, with a brand-new coach who landed on Monday and got three training sessions. Their midfield got sold or hurt while everyone was watching the World Cup.

I hate agreeing with him. But look at what Vasco is: no away win all year, a coach on day three who's never worked in Brazil, and the spine of the team either sold or in a knee brace. New-manager bounce? Not with three sessions and no signings registered. My worry is Vitória's own back line — two defenders out and one suspended. That keeps it ugly and tight, not open. Home team, low score, 1-0.

Two venue splits define this: Vitória have conceded three goals in seven home games — the best home defense in the league, about 75 percent of home points taken — while Vasco have zero away wins and score three-quarters of their goals at home. Add a debut manager on three days of training and the model puts the home win at 44 percent. Betfair posts 2.44 — strip the vig on its three-way and Vitória is implied at 40.7 percent, the best price on a board where Pinnacle sits at 2.30. At 44 percent true, a $10 ticket returns $10.74 expected. The play is Vitória to win at 2.44, and my score is 2-0.

This is a party night in Salvador, 2-0 the champions of the Nordeste.

That's the game.